Growth of India’s GDP during the Period 1970-71 to 2019-20- An Econometric Analysis

Abstract

This paper estimated the growth, endogenous break, and fluctuation in India’s gross domestic product from 1970–71 to 2019–20. The linear growth estimation method is well established in the existing literature. The estimation of endogenous structural break and fluctuation measuring methods needs some modification and adjustment. The resulting estimates reveal that India's GDP consists of three breaks and four distinct phases in different policy regimes in the considered time interval, of which all four are full-length regimes, two upward spikes, one downward spike were created during the period. The highest growth rate was achieved at 6.54% from 2005-06 to 2019-20.